Say it ain't so, Joe

Say it ain’t so, Joe.

In one fell swoop, the Minnesota Twins went from being hands-on A.L. Central favorites with World Series potential to being just another contender when it was revealed that Joe Nathan, their cool closer, had torn a ligament in his throwing elbow.

While Nathan tried to put a good face on about the injury, saying he’ll sit out a couple of weeks and then try to throw again rather than opt for immediate surgery, the reality is this: A) this type of injury usually results in reconstructive Tommy John surgery; B) that surgery means at least a year out of baseball rehabbing; C) at 35, Nathan’s career could be in jeopardy, and if not, at least shortened as history shows that it usually takes at least a year or two to come back from Tommy John; and D) for you optimists out there like myself, odds are about 100-to-1, and that’s an understatement, that after two weeks, Nathan will be able to throw without major pain and 10,000-to-1 that he can pitch a whole season with the tear.

Don’t underestimate how huge a loss this probably will be for the Twins, a quite resilient organization that has dealt with injuries before, most recently last year when former MVP Justin Morneau, Kevin Slowey, Joe Crede and Glen Perkins all missed the stretch run that ended with the instant classic 12th-inning one-game playoff win over Detroit for the Central crown.

Those injuries all hurt, but it’s hard to see them being worse than the potentially season-ending one to Nathan. To put in perspective what the big righthander means to Minnesota, just look at his numbers since he became the Twins’ closer in 2004: 246 saves (first amongst all pitchers in the majors), a 1.87 earned runs average (1st), .182 opponents’ batting average (1st) and a .526 opponents’ on base plus slugging percentage (1st). He is also second in save percentage over the past six seasons.

So how do you replace a guy, who when he entered the game in the ninth, was the best in the business?

For starters, the Twins will look in-house. Here’s one writer’s thoughts on who will get the job.

The Favorite: Jon Rauch. With 26 career saves, the 6-10 righty will likely get every shot to win the job. One drawback: “The Neck Tattoo” saved those games on also-rans, not pennant contenders.

The Next Combo Platter: Jose Mijares/Pat Neshek. Mijares saved some games in the minors and is nearly unhittable against lefties. The unorthodox Neshek was all-but unhittable with his unorthodox orthodox delivery prior to his own Tommy John surgery. A combo of the two in save situations could work out well, but Mijares’ hot temper and how Neshek returns could be issues.

Ole Reliable: Matt Guerrier. The veteran righty had a solid season a year ago as a set-up guy and was once again amongst the league leaders in appearances. So he’s durable. He’s also scary with a one-run lead as he’s prone to give up homers, although usually they are solos.

How Dare You Utter His Name: Jesse Crain. Bring up the righthander’s name to any Twins’ fan and you’ll likely get a grimace. However, Crain has some minor league saves, was groomed to be a closer a few years back and last year gave up a home run only once every 17 innings.

The New Guy: Clay Condrey. I don’t know a lot about yet another righty on the Twins’ staff, but he did post an ERA of 3.00 for the Phillies last year.

The Dark Horse: Francisco Liriano. “The Franchise” could not be touched as a rookie, blew out his elbow, underwent Tommy John, and has struggled the last two seasons since returning. Reportedly, he looks much more comfortable and in control this spring training after a strong winter ball season. Last year, Liriano was a strong starter, but teams usually figured him out the second or third time through the lineup. That would speak well to his ability to come in late in games with that devastating slider and shut down opposing rallies. What isn’t clear is if Liriano has the nerves for the role. And if he is back to his 2006 form, he is probably more valuable as a shutdown starter, which the Twins lack.

The other options would be to trade for a closer or sign a free agent. The Twins’ payroll is already at $96 million, so don’t bet on them trading for a high-priced arm even with the move into the higher-revenue Target Field. The free agent market is quite thin, so don’t bet on that move either. Expect the Twins to stay within the organization to replace Nathan as they are loathe to trade away prospects.

Perhaps if none of their closing contenders pans out by midseason, GM Bill Smith will pull the trigger on a trade, but don’t expect one sooner.

On the plus side, the loss of Nathan is not the end of the world. The Royals and Indians are once again weak sisters. Detroit and Chicago at best drew even with the Twins in the Central race. The division is still up for grabs.

This could be the strongest offensive team the Twins have had since, well, last year, or Kirby and Herbie, or Killer and Tony O.

J.J. Hardy and Orlando Hudson up the middle are a big improvement. The outfield should be stable with the jettisoning of Carlos Gomez. Morneau is healthy. The perpetually wounded Crede is long gone. And, of course, there’s Joe Mauer behind the plate. (Please sign him to an extension. Pretty please. Soon?!)

Nathan or not, I still can’t wait for Opening Day.

Until next time…

Brian Miller is a longtime local sports writer and the co-founder of iSportsNorth. He currently resides in Eveleth and can be reached at miller24bri@gmail.com.